Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
