Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
